Sizing up the GOP field: Ron Paul is the likely nominee

11 Jul

By Joe Sansone

It is time to give my honest (although opinionated) assessment of the GOP field. I have attempted to be as accurate as possible in the following critical description of the candidates and their likelihood of success. In essence, these are the pros and cons for each candidate as I see it.

Mitt Romney

The former Massachusetts governor  has no chance of winning the GOP nomination. “Romneycare” will totally sink his candidacy as will his prior support for the bank bailouts. He also has a track record of changing his views on key issues and even flirted with pulling troops out of Afghanistan in the last debate, though he remains in the pro war camp. Sadly, his being a Mormon will cause some problems in a few states that have a greater Christian fundamentalist influence.

Romney is an attractive candidate stylistically and does well on camera but comes off as insincere nonetheless. At times, it actually appears as if he is imitating Reagan’s gestures. There is also a lot of money backing his candidacy, i.e. a Federal Reserve puppet and the media is propping up his candidacy. He will be a player, but his front runner status will sink like the Titanic, again. Support for the TSA, National ID cards, etc. are not going to help either.

Rick Perry

Let us face it; Perry’s candidacy has one major goal, to stop Paul from winning Texas delegates and the nomination.  Perry (like Romney) stylistically fits the bill as a presidential candidate, but it ends there.  He attended the  Bilderberg meeting in 2007.  Since the Bilderberg are an international group of elites attempting to control world economic policies and promote global governance, at the very least it appears that Perry violated the Logan Act. Politically, most Republican primary voters probably do not support a world government and frankly may have a problem with foreign external influences interfering with our republican form of government. Perry was also former campaign manager for Al Gore. Recently his underground effort to stop Texas from protecting its citizens from the TSA was telling. He is toast.

Michelle Bachmann

Bachmann certainly has charisma, knows how to work the camera and apparently has great appeal with middle-aged men. The media are propping her up even when they try to create controversy around her knowing conservatives will come to her defense. Using talk radio neoconservatives, she has managed to align herself with the anti tax Tea Party. The problem here is that not only did she not support Ronald Reagan’s presidency and worked for Jimmy Carter’s campaign instead(!).   Bachmann is also a former IRS employee . Most at first (as I did) assume she defended people against the IRS or did tax planning. She actually was an IRS attorney prosecuting American citizens! Apparently being a tax prosecutor  was also her only job outside of elective office. She also may have some baggage with her 23 foster kids if it turns out that she made a lot of government money, but I admit that is pure speculation on my part.

Still, once it sinks in that the GOP could nominate a former IRS employee her bubble will burst. Imagine Obama turning to her during a debate while she is talking small government and point out that she worked for the IRS. It is hard to believe that all of her opponents will refrain from mentioning her IRS employment during primary debates.  Working for the IRS is heresy to Republican primary voters. Her support for renewal of the so-called Patriot Act puts her at odds with the Bill of Rights as well. In addition, thisvideo of Bachmann’s religion and foreign policy may scare a few people.

Herman Cain

Cain has thus far proven to be not that articulate, or at least not very good on his feet during debates and media interviews. This former chairman of The Kansas City Federal Reserve …Well, I guess I’ll stop there. He is not going anywhere when the movement to end the Fed is at an all time high. He is also a media creation.

Gary Johnson

This former New Mexico governor has an impressive record as a governor, however Ron Paul is sucking all of the oxygen from his campaign. He will also have problems since he is not pro life. More importantly, media outlets have already started unfairly censoring him from the debates. On the surface this looks like it would help Ron Paul but the reason that it is being done is so that the media do not want two candidates promoting similar themes. That situation would only help Paul control the debate, which he’s already doing.

Rick Santorum

Santorum does not have any support. Social conservatives that may have supported him are going to go with Bachmann.

Tim Pawlenty

Former Minnesota governor Pawlenty is another media creation trying to pit himself against Paul to gain support by loudly beating drums of war. Unfortunately for him, most Republicans are waking up to the fact that the wars were stupid and had little to do with national defense.

Newt Gingrich

Newt has so much baggage (both personal and political) that it is incomprehensible that he will win anything.

Sarah Palin

The former vice presidential candidate and Alaskan governor does not appear to be seriously considering running, and instead looks as if to cash in on her fame as much as possible. If she runs, her support for the bank bailouts will sink her as well.  She could possibly limit the political damage by claiming she had no choice being McCain’s VP, but that would be a tough sell.

We will not bother discussing any of the other potential candidates since they are not likely to run and would have little impact anyway.

Ron Paul

Then of course there is Ron Paul, the defender of liberty, protector of the U.S. Constitution, Bill of Rights, and the principles enunciated in The Declaration of Independence. A medical doctor who has delivered four thousand babies. A ten term Congressman, Paul has worked tirelessly and consistently for forty years. He has never voted for a tax increase, always votes against deficit spending, and never votes for a bill that he believes is unconstitutional.  Paul has opted out of the Congressional pension system and invariably returns part of his office budget to the government each year.

Paul has exposed to many people the fraud that is the Federal Reserve and supports a gold backed private currency system. In other words, he is opposed to the inflation tax. He would also try to move us toward ending income tax slavery.

He has opposed unconstitutional wars that are bankrupting the country and hurting our national defense. Paul is a military non-interventionist; he seeks friendly and peaceful relations with all nations if possible. Paul has opposed the so-called Patriot Act and defended Americans from this illegal law. He has opposed the TSA and the systematic creation of a police state in the United States.

Briefly, Paul has the intellectual superiority, unmatched integrity, and the fortitude to lead, like no other politician in recent memory. Therefore, it is indeed a tough decision for GOP primary voters….

What Paul has going against him is that although in athletic condition for his age, he is older and may not be perceived as what a president should look like. More importantly, Federal Reserve officials and talking heads on cable television and radio talk show hosts will do their best to marginalize his candidacy once again.

The internet makes the Paul media blackout very difficult. Paul’s support is overwhelming. Visit Google Insights for Search and search Ron Paul and then search the other candidates’ names. Paul has a high intensity of search in many states and moderate search intensity in all the other states. None of the other candidates comes close. When I checked Romney and Bachmann, each had high intensity searches in one state. Bachmann it was Minnesota, and Romney it was Utah. They had low search intensity scores in every other state…….Unless Google starts manipulating search results when Ron Paul’s name is searched on Google and Google News, the attempt to blackout Paul will fail.

My guess is that the 2012 GOP race will turn out similar to the 2008 campaign. Bachmann or Perry will control the social conservative wing, Romney the moderate  Wall Street wing, and Ron Paul will get the grassroots anti establishment vote just as McCain did. Paul while not getting media support as McCain did will get votes from social conservatives and social moderates and liberals Democrats called Blue Republicans. Democrats that are socially liberal but not hardcore socialists are starting to flock toward Paul as are many Christian conservatives. That is because both groups recognize that his support for states’ rights sends most divisive issues back to the states and replaces the modern one size fits all view of contemporary society with a more diverse view of America. What works in California does not have to work in Texas and it is none of the federal governments business unless the Bills of Rights are being violated. A decentralized Constitutional system appeals to people across the spectrum.

Paul will also gain the support of fiscal conservatives and although too humble to do it, he could simply say I told you so regarding the economy and a host of other issues during a Republican debate. In the general election, Paul would devastate Obama’s campaign and they know it as many Democrats like the good doctor.

I cannot imagine Republican primary voters not supporting Ron Paul in the end. Especially when they realize the baggage the other candidates are carrying. However, as always, I reserve the right to be wrong.

Joe Sansone is the author of  Obama In Wonderland

  1. kusokurae

    July 20, 2011 at 12:02 am

    If the “Cut, Cap, and Balance” act is what you’re referring to, he doesn’t support it. Here is his statement:

  2. josephp.geigerjr

    July 15, 2011 at 1:39 pm

    This article makes a number of good points and the optimism is appreciated; however, I think it would take an act of God for Ron Paul to gain the Republican nomination. I would of course love to see this happen (and will do what I can for his campaign), but unfortunately the military industrial complex and the international banking cartel would never let this happen, even in the unlikely event that the American people came to embrace social welfare cuts and large reductions in military spending.

  3. theendisfar

    July 11, 2011 at 5:49 pm

    Any idea why Paul is supporting the Balanced Budget Amendment?

    It does not balance anything, especially the Budget and officially grants the Federal Gov’t 18% ownership of everything the US produces.